CYBERNOISE

Who Flees Conflict?

In a world where conflict and displacement are on the rise, a surprising truth is emerging: the bravest souls are often the ones who stay behind. What drives them to take this risk, and what does it mean for the future of migration?

Create an image that captures the essence of a person standing at a crossroads, with a conflict zone in the background and a uncertain future ahead, in the style of Syd Mead and H.R. Giger, with neon lights and a mix of futuristic and dystopian elements, incorporating the vibrant colors and dynamic composition of a Jean Giraud (aka Moebius) illustration

In a groundbreaking study that challenges our assumptions about migration and conflict, researchers have discovered that the decision to flee or stay in a war zone is not just about economics or opportunity - it's about risk tolerance. Using a rich dataset from Nigeria, the study found that individuals who are more willing to take risks are more likely to stay in conflict zones, while the more cautious are more likely to flee. This counterintuitive finding has significant implications for policymakers and humanitarian organizations. It suggests that those who flee are not necessarily the most vulnerable, but rather those who are more risk-averse. On the other hand, those who stay behind are often the most resilient and determined individuals. As we look to the future, this research highlights the need for nuanced and targeted policies that take into account the complex motivations and characteristics of migrants. By understanding what drives individuals to stay or flee, we can better support those who are displaced and build more effective strategies for mitigating the impact of conflict. Moreover, this study offers a message of hope: in a world where conflict and displacement are on the rise, there are still individuals who are willing to take risks and stay behind to rebuild and protect their communities. As we move forward, it's time to rethink our assumptions about migration and conflict, and to develop new approaches that prioritize the needs and aspirations of all individuals, whether they choose to stay or flee.

Original paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.03405
Authors: Lidia Ceriani, Paolo Verme